Advanced (先端技術FPD搭載) TV市場の長期予測編～2026年には360億ドルに成長
DSCCの Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) の最新版によると、Advanced TVの出荷台数は2026年までに年平均成長率19％で増加し3740万台に到達、出荷金額は356億ドルになると予測されている。本レポートは、最先端TVテクノロジー (WOLED、QDディスプレイ、QDEF、4Kおよび8K解像度のMiniLED) を含む、世界のプレミアムTV市場を対象としている。テクノロジー/地域/ブランド/解像度/サイズの各項目別に現在と将来のTV出荷台数と出荷金額を調査、これら全てのテクノロジーの成長について予測している。2週間前には最新実績を取り上げたが、今週は最新予測について解説する。
Advanced TV Market to Grow to $36B by 2026
Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 37.4M units generating $35.6B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, MicroLED and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Two weeks ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week, we will cover our updated forecast.
In this report, we define an “Advanced TV” (capitalized) as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The forecast in the report allows analysis by feature for Advanced LCD TVs, including:
- QDEF TV: TV using a Quantum Dot Enhancement Film; these TVs are sold as “QLED” by Samsung, TCL and others;
- MiniLED: LCD TVs with a MiniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019 with many brands following. Note that we expect that all MiniLED TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will have MiniLED;
- QD Display: Samsung’s term for its Quantum Dot OLED (QD-OLED) technology, but our forecast also uses this term for potential successor technologies, such as QNED and EL-QD. The QD Display category excludes QDEF TVs;
- MicroLED: Samsung has introduced direct-view MicroLED TVs with sizes from 88”-110”, marketed as TVs for wealthy consumers. Our report excludes larger MicroLED products such as the 146” and 292” “The Wall” products sold by Samsung, as these are primarily business displays.
Two Advanced TV technologies appear in our historical data but are not included in our forecasts, because both technologies appear to be discontinued.
- Dual Cell: LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019. Dual Cell appears to be phased out in TV, we forecast zero volume for this technology starting in 2022;
- Rollable OLED TV, introduced by LG in 2021, has been discontinued in 2022.
In our latest update, our forecast for OLED TV has been reduced in 2022-2023 due to the collapse of the Samsung VD-LGD deal for White OLED panel supply.
The first chart here shows our outlook for Advanced TV shipments by quarter and by technology and screen size group.
For 2022, we expect Advanced TV shipments to increase by 19% Y/Y to 23.4M units and expect Advanced TV revenues to increase by 11% to $30.2B.
Quarterly Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology
OLED TV units (including QD-OLED) are expected to increase by 14% to 7.8M with revenues increasing 7% Y/Y. Most growth will be in the smallest (<50”) and largest (77”+) sizes. Shipments of OLED TVs <50” are expected to increase by 36% Y/Y with shipments of 42” OLED TVs starting in Q2 2022. Shipments of 77”+ OLED TVs are expected to increase by 19% Y/Y with shipments of 83” TVs increasing by 110% Y/Y.
Advanced LCD TV units are expected to increase by 22% Y/Y to 15.6M units with revenues increasing 12% Y/Y. Growth will be concentrated in 75” and larger sizes. Shipments of 75” Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 39% Y/Y while shipments of even larger Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 36% Y/Y to more than 800K units.
In our updated long-term forecast, we expect total Advanced TV shipments to grow by a 19% CAGR from 2020 to 2026 to 37.4M units, with OLED TV growing at a faster 24% CAGR to 13.2M and Advanced LCD TV units growing at 16% to 24.2M. We expect MicroLED to increase to 35k units in 2026 but this still represents less than 0.1% of the Advanced TV market.
Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology
Advanced TV revenues jumped in 2021 with pandemic-fed demand and higher prices. Price declines in 2022-2026 will constrain revenue growth, but for the period 2020-2026 we expect Advanced TV revenues to increase at a 14% CAGR to $35.6B in 2026, driven by increasing volumes, larger screen sizes and new technologies. We forecast that OLED TV revenues, including QD-OLED, will grow by 16% to $15.0B in 2026 and that Advanced LCD TV revenues will grow by 12% to $19.1B, with the Advanced LCD TV revenue share declining to 54% in 2026. We expect that MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture $1.5B or 4% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.1% of units.
The report divides worldwide shipments into eight geographic regions, and we expect that Western Europe and North America will continue to be the largest regions for Advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 63% and 62% of Advanced TV units and revenue, respectively, in 2021, and we expect the combined share to remain nearly the same through 2026.
Advanced TV Revenues by Region
Now that Sony and Samsung have launched TVs with QD-OLED panels, we will see how this technology competes with other Advanced TV display technologies. Our forecast for QD-OLED TVs by screen size is shown in the next chart here. We expect these two brands to ship more than 500K QD-OLED TVs in 2022, and shipments to increase to 1.5M in 2026, generally limited by SDC’s capacity. The product portfolio will be limited to 4K resolution panels, but 77” TVs and 49” monitors will be added in 2023 as SDC will make these in a Multi-cut Mother Glass (MMG) configuration, 2-up 77” and 2-up 49” on each Gen 8.5 substrate. SDC will also make 34” QD-OLED monitor panels, but monitors are not covered in the Advanced TV report.
QD-OLED TV Shipments by Screen Size
The category of Advanced TVs represents only a small fraction of the total TV market in unit terms, but it represents where all “the action” is in the technology battle. The champion for the LCD camp is MiniLED, and our forecast for MiniLED TV sets by screen size is shown in the final chart here. MiniLED TV was introduced by TCL in 2019 but sold only in very small volumes, but TCL has been followed by most other major brands introducing MiniLED TVs, including Samsung and LG in 2021 and Sony in 2022. We expect an ongoing battle between MiniLED, White OLED and QD-OLED for the premium TV market; because of the Gen 10.5 LCD fabs, we expect that MiniLED will have a substantial cost and price advantage over OLED in the largest screen sizes. MiniLED and big screens will also be the main pathway to 8K TVs; a majority of 8K TVs will employ MiniLED technology starting in 2022.
MiniLED TV Shipments by Screen Size
Overall, we expect that the volume for OLED TVs (including QD-OLED) to continue to exceed that of MiniLED, but that LCD TV (both MiniLED and standard backlit models) will continue to maintain >60% unit share of Advanced TV.
DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) includes technical descriptions of all major Advanced TV display technologies, plus quarterly shipment history through Q1’22, sortable by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and includes pivot tables for analysis of units, revenues, ASPs and other metrics. The report includes DSCC’s quarterly forecast out to 2026 across technology, region, resolution and size. Readers interested in subscribing to the DSCC Advanced TV Shipment Report should contact email@example.com.
Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report
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