English
Korean[新着] 米国TV輸入はトランプ関税の大半を回避も、モニターメーカーは依然として中国に依存
これらCounterpoint Research FPD部門 (旧DSCC) 発の分析記事をいち早く無料配信するメールマガジンにぜひご登録ください。ご登録者様ならではの優先特典もご用意しています。【簡単ご登録は こちらから 】
冒頭部和訳
米国のTV輸入業者は、トランプ大統領による「報復」関税の多くを回避できる見通しだが、モニター輸入業者は依然として中国に依存しており、Q2'25からは20％の関税が課される。先月の記事では、米国国際貿易委員会 (ITC) のデータをもとに、電子機器、スマートフォン、モバイルPCの輸入状況についての情報を共有した。今回はその分析をさらに進め、ディスプレイ面積に対する影響が最も大きい2つの用途であるモニターとTVを対象に取り上げる。
参考までに、Q1'25の数値の概要を以下に示す。
US TV Imports Largely Safe from Trump Tariffs But Monitor Makers Still Rely on China
TV importers in the US can largely dodge the Trump “reciprocal” tariffs, but importers of monitors continue to rely on China and face a 20% tariff starting in Q2 2025. Last month we shared data from the US International Trade Commission (ITC) on imports of electronic goods, smartphones and mobile PCs. We continue that analysis covering the two applications with the greatest impact on display area – monitors and TVs.
As a review, here are some summary figures for Q1 2025:
- Imports of Chapter 85 electronic goods increased 19% YoY, with larger YoY increases in goods from Vietnam, Taiwan, India and Malaysia
- Imports of smartphones increased 40% YoY and import value increased 72% YoY. Imports from China decreased in unit terms, while imports from India more than tripled and imports from Vietnam and South Korea more than doubled YoY.
- Imports of mobile PCs (which includes both tablets and notebooks) increased 27% YoY. Imports from China decreased YoY while imports from Vietnam increased 59% YoY in both units and revenue. Imports from China still made up about 60% of all mobile PC imports.
Given that monitors have many of the same players as mobile PCs (Dell, HP, Apple, Samsung, etc.) we might expect that monitor imports would mirror those of mobile PCs, but that expectation turned out to be wrong for Q1 2025. Monitor imports increased 13% YoY in unit terms and 18% YoY in revenue terms, but Q1 2025 was a recovery from an unusually slow Q4 2024. When looking at the combined figures from Q4 2024-Q1 2025, imports decreased 1% YoY in unit terms and increased 6% YoY in value.
The China share of monitor imports has been on a slow downward drift in recent years, and this continued in Q1 2025. Monitor imports from China increased 8% YoY in units and 16% YoY in value, and China’s share of monitor imports fell to 80%/76% in units/value, the lowest figure since at least 2018, excepting the pandemic-stricken Q1 2020.
The biggest source of monitors outside of China has been Vietnam and monitor imports from that country surged in Q1 2025, increasing 96% YoY in units and 62% YoY in value. Even with those large increases, though, Vietnam supplied only 14%/10% of monitor imports by units/value. Imports from all other countries were trifling compared to the top two.
Like smartphones and mobile PCs, monitors were included in Trump’s exemption from the reciprocal tariffs announced after stock and bond markets frowned on the first wave. Therefore, monitors from all countries except China are imported without any tariff in Q2 2025, but imports from China are still subject to the 20% “fentanyl” tariffs imposed by Trump in Q1 2025. Based on the average value of a monitor import from China in Q1 2025 of $159, the tariffs will add $32 to the cost of the average monitor in Q2 2025.
While monitors were exempted from the reciprocal tariffs, TVs were not, and TVs from most countries face a higher tariff in Q2 2025. The exception to this increase is Mexico, as all goods imported under the USMCA trade deal face no tariff. Even before Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, TVs from most countries faced a 3.9% tariff and TVs from China faced an 11.4% tariff resulting from the trade skirmish in Trump’s first term. These tariffs increase to 11.4% and 41.4% for most countries and China, respectively, in Q2 2025.
In contrast to smartphones and mobile PCs, there was no import surge in TVs in Q1 2025. TV imports decreased by 7% YoY in unit terms and by 1% YoY in revenue terms. TV importers continued to shift production away from China. TV imports from China decreased 44%/47% YoY in units/value, and China’s share of TV imports fell to 6%/11%, the lowest level since at least 2017.
US Imports of TVs by Country, 2023 to 2025
Mexico’s share of TV imports increased to 61%/79% in units/value in Q1 2025, so most TV imports will be unaffected by the Trump tariffs in Q2.
The tariff picture for Q3 2025 remains completely uncertain. Trump’s “pause” on reciprocal tariffs was issued on April 11 for 90 days, so it expires on July 10. From that date, tariffs on imports from most countries will increase dramatically unless a country-specific deal is in place, or unless Trump acts to extend the pause.
