Published October 3, 2022

DSCCは先日発刊の Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) で2022年のOLED出荷金額が前年比4%減の403億ドルになるという予測を明らかにし、その根拠としてモニター、ノートPC、ゲームプラットフォームの成長鈍化と、スマートフォンの前年比マイナス成長の加速を挙げている。


  • OLEDスマートフォン:出荷台数は13%減、出荷金額は5%減
  • OLEDスマートウォッチ:出荷台数は12%減、出荷金額は3%減
  • OLED TV:出荷台数は4%減、出荷金額は10%減
OLED Panel Revenues Expected to Decline 4% Y/Y in 2022 - Slower Growth for IT Applications

In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), we reveal that 2022 OLED panel revenues are expected to decrease 4% Y/Y to $40.3B as a result of slower growth for monitors, notebook PCs and game platforms combined with faster Y/Y declines for smartphones.

As macroeconomic concerns persist for battling inflation, monetary policies are enacted to combat it. While balancing a possible recession, weakened consumer demand, persistent supply chain issues, softening commercial demand and inventory buildup have created the perfect storm for Y/Y unit and revenue declines for smartphones, smartwatches and TVs in 2022. In 2022, by application, we expect Y/Y unit and panel revenue declines for the following:

  • OLED smartphones: 13% Y/Y unit and 5% panel revenue decreases;
  • OLED smartwatches: 12% Y/Y unit and 3% Y/Y panel revenue decreases;
  • OLED TVs: 4% Y/Y unit and 10% Y/Y panel revenue decreases.

Although emerging applications have slower growth as a result of the aforementioned macroeconomic issues, we still expect positive Y/Y unit increases and Y/Y revenue growth with the exception of notebook PCs.

  • OLED notebook PCs: 10% Y/Y unit growth and 5% Y/Y panel revenue decline;
  • OLED monitors: 582% Y/Y unit growth and 251% panel revenue growth;
  • OLED tablets: 32% Y/Y unit growth and 31% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
  • OLED game platforms: 70% Y/Y unit growth and 65% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
  • OLED automotive: 105% Y/Y unit growth and 96% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
  • OLED AR/VR: although this application has <1% revenue share, this application is expected to have over 2500% Y/Y panel revenue growth as result of development and product efforts by Sony, Meta and others.

For OLED monitors, we expect 2022 revenue of $200M from $57M in 2021. The 42”, 45” and 48” WOLED monitors are expected to account for a 38% revenue share, while QD-OLED monitors are expected to account for a 32% revenue share.

For OLED notebook PCs, we expect 2022 panel revenue of $613M in 2022, down from $646M in 2021 on gains of 6.1M units from 5.5M units in 2021. Our long term forecast for OLED notebook PCs remains robust as a result of new G8.7 OLED fabs capacity coming online in 2024 that will target IT applications.

In 2022, smartphones are expected to remain the dominant application with a 75% unit and 77% revenue share, down from 77% unit share and 78% revenue share in 2021 as a result of gains from other applications. In 2023, we expect smartphone unit share to decline to a 74% unit share and 73% revenue share as a result of gains from monitors, notebook PCs, tablets, automotive and AR/VR. In 2025, Smartwatches are the #2 application in 2022 with a 17% unit share and 7% revenue share. On a panel revenue basis, OLED TVs are the #1 application with a 10% revenue share. On a panel revenue basis, we expect notebook PCs to overtake smartwatches for the #2 application with a 6% revenue share and $3B in panel revenue.

Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Application

Source: DSCC's Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします)

In 2022 by panel supplier:

We expect SDC’s panel revenue share to increase to 63%, up from 60% in 2021, as a result of 10% Y/Y gains from notebook PCs, 25% Y/Y gains from tablets, and 70% Y/Y gains from game platforms, SDC is the only panel supplier providing all four iPhone 14 panels to Apple. We expect SDC to account for a 75% unit share and 80% panel revenue share of the iPhone 14 series volume in 2022. For OLED TVs, SDC is expected to have a 11% revenue share as a result of its 55” and 65” QD-OLED TVs.

We expect LGD’s revenue share to fall slightly from 23% to 21%. LGD is a panel supplier for the iPhone 14 and in Q3’22 became a panel supplier for the iPhone 14 Pro Max. we expect LGD to account for 18% of the iPhone 14 series volume in 2022. LGD is also a key panel supplier for the growth areas of monitor and automotive applications. For monitors, LGD is expected to have a 50% unit share and 42% revenue share. For OLED TVs, LGD is expected to have a 91% unit share and 89% revenue share.

We expect BOE to be the #3 panel supplier with a 7% revenue share in 2022, down from 9% in 2021. The decline in panel revenue share is the result of a 6% Y/Y unit decline for smartphones and 47% Y/Y decline for smartwatches. For smartphones, BOE is also a panel supplier for the iPhone 14 and have 7% of the volume in 2022.

Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Panel Supplier

Source: DSCC's Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします)

For OLED smartphones by panel shipments, we expect a 13% Y/Y decrease to 554M units. This decrease is the result of a 38% Y/Y decline for rigid OLED and slower growth for flexible OLED panels. Foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 77% Y/Y, followed by flexible OLED smartphone panels up 6% Y/Y. In 2022, we expect rigid OLED smartphone panels to have a 32% unit share, down from 45% in 2021 and a 13% revenue share, down from 20% in 2021. For flexible OLED smartphone panels, we expect a 65% unit share, up from 54% in 2021 and a 79% revenue share, up from 75% in 2021. For foldable OLED smartphone panels, we expect a 3% unit share, up from 2% in 2021 and an 8% revenue share, up from 5% in 2021.

Annual OLED Smartphone Panel Share by Substrate Forecast

Source: DSCC's Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします)

On an area basis, OLED TVs are expected to remain with a 52% area share in 2022 as a result of gains from 55” and 65”

QD-OLED TV and gains from 55”, 65”, 77”, 88” and 97” WOLED TVs. We expect notebook PCs to grow share from a 2% area share in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and increase to a 10% area share in 2026 as new G8.7 IT OLED fabs come online. Excluding OLED TVs, OLED smartphones have an 83% area share, down from 90% in 2021 on gains from notebook PCs, monitors, tablets, game platforms and automotive.

Annual OLED Area by Application

Source: DSCC's Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします)

Quarterly OLED Shipment Report



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David Naranjo