2021年のAdvanced (OLEDまたはMiniLED LCD搭載) タブレット市場は99％成長、Appleが支配
DSCCの Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) では、OLEDまたはMiniLED LCDを搭載したタブレット、ノートPC、モニター、一体型PCの四半期別出荷台数データを、ブランド別/サイズ別/解像度別/リフレッシュレート別に、またその他の多くのディスプレイ関連機能別/非ディスプレイ機能別に提示している。
DSCCは先週、タブレットの出荷実績と最新予測を発表したが、当然のことながら、Appleの12.9インチiPad Proによる大きな前進が見られた。この製品はMiniLEDの供給制約をものともせず、Advanced (OLEDまたはMiniLEDパネル搭載) タブレット市場を支配している。このApple製品向けのパネル出荷枚数は前期比90％増の190万枚に到達、セグメント全体では前期比35％増・前年比153％増の257万枚となった。これは四半期別の過去最高記録である。これにより、MiniLEDとAppleが単一製品でQ4’21 Advancedタブレット市場でシェア74％を獲得することになった。2021年全体では、Advancedタブレット市場は前年比99％増の670万台、MiniLEDとAppleがパネル280万枚でシェア58％を占めた。他のモデルはいずれもシェア9％を超えていない。パネルメーカー別ではSamsungがシェア19％で第2位、その後にLenovo、Huawei、BBKが続く。Appleの12.9インチiPad Pro はMiniLED搭載タブレットとしては第1世代に当たり、10,384のMiniLEDと2,596のゾーンを実装しておりコストが高いことから、MiniLEDのシェアは金額ベースではさらに高くなっている。
DSCC Report Reveals Advanced Tablet Market Rose 99% in 2021, Apple Dominates, MiniLED Supply Chain and Product Updates
DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) reveals OLED vs. MiniLED LCD tablet, notebook, monitor and all in one (AIO) shipments by quarter, brand, size, resolution, refresh rate and many other display related and non-display features as well.
Last week, we released the tablet results and our latest forecast, and not surprisingly, we see significant strides being made by the Apple 12.9” iPad Pro. Despite MiniLED supply constraints, that product is dominating the Advanced Tablet market. Panel shipments to Apple for that product rose 90% Q/Q to 1.9M units, enabling the entire segment to rise 35% Q/Q and 153% Y/Y to 2.57M units, a quarterly record. Thus, MiniLEDs and Apple accounted for 74% of the Advanced Tablet Market in Q4’21 with just a single product. For all of 2021, the Advanced Tablet market rose 99% to 6.7M units with MiniLEDs and Apple accounting for a 58% share and 2.8M panels. No other model had more than a 9% share. For all of 2021, Samsung was #2 with a 19% share followed by Lenovo, Huawei and BBK. MiniLEDs had an even higher share on a revenue basis due to the high cost of this first generation MiniLED tablet given its implementation with 10,384 MiniLEDs and 2596 zones.
OLED vs. MiniLED Tablets
The report provides a forecast by brand by quarter by size and other features. DSCC expects the 2022 market to grow by another 22% to 8.1M panels with the MiniLED share rising to 66% on just the MiniLED iPad Pro. The Samsung Galaxy Tab S8+ is expected to be the #2 model for the year based on its strong start with panel shipments starting in December and expected to grow from Q1’22 to Q2’22. It is expected to account for a 17% share followed by the S8 Ultra. MiniLED tablets are expected to rise 38% in 2022 while OLED tablets are expected to be flattish as the iPad Pro takes more share.
Apple is taking share with just a single product for the rest of this year in this category. While it was previously thought that Apple would also introduce MiniLEDs to the 11” iPad Pro, we no longer believe that is the case, at least not this year. Apple is reportedly targeting its MiniLEDs on larger and more expensive displays. We do expect Apple to introduce MiniLEDs on a 27” monitor, which could be launched in June with its Mac Pro. We believe the 27” MiniLED monitor will have 5K resolution and an oxide backplane. It may adopt 120Hz as well, but 5K at 120Hz would require HDMI 2.1 and would limit the number of Apple devices that would work with this display.
To meet demand for its growing MiniLED business, Apple will add a second MiniLED chip supplier in Q2’22. Until now, only Ennostar has supplied MiniLED chips to Apple, but San’an Opto will start in Q2’22 at a rumored double-digit cost reduction. Ennostar will also increase capacity from 1.2M 4” wafers per month to 1.5M wafers in June. In addition, Luxshare will also join Apple’s MiniLED supplier chain in March, performing MiniLED chip transfer and backlight assembly also at a rumored double-digit discount.
Looking at tablets beyond 2022, we expect to see Apple shake-up this category again by launching OLED iPad Pros. Unlike with MiniLEDs in 2021 and 2022, we expect Apple to launch OLEDs with both 11” and 12.9” OLED panels. Already, it has been reported out of Korea that Apple will single source with LGD for the 12.9” model and multi-source the 11” model with SDC and LGD. The reason why Apple would single source with LGD is that LGD has already introduced tandem stack OLEDs for the automotive market and has already implemented the material set. LGD has ordered another tandem FMM VTE tool from Canon Tokki for AP4/E6 Phase 4. This fab will be a rigid + TFE fab. It will have LTPO, but not Touch on TFE because it will be targeted at larger sizes like tablets. Touch on TFE will become more costly at larger sizes due to yield loss from all the likely opens and shorts from the Ti/Al/Ti mesh structure. We expect it to begin production from as early as 2H’23. SDC is also expected to bring in a tandem VTE tool A4, beginning production in Q3’23 and BOE is expected to add a tandem tool to B12 beginning production in early 2023. LGD will be the only one of these fabs to have a 100% rigid + TFE solution which should help with costs from lower capex. However, it will be the only company without Touch on TFE in case the technical challenges can be overcome.
To see DSCC’s forecast for tablet shipments through 2026 by brand, panel size, refresh rate, single vs. tandem stack, backplane, form factor (rigid/rigid+TFE/foldable/multi-fold), touch type, panel price, etc., please see the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) or contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
Quarterly Advanced IT Panel Shipment and Technology Report
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