米国の消費者物価指数 (CPI) は過去40年間以上の期間で、最も高い値から、ゆっくりではあるが着実な低下を継続していたが、2023年1月の下げ幅は予想よりも小さかった。一方、TV価格は2022年12月に異例の上昇を示した後、1月に再び下落に転じた。
この分析は、米国労働統計局 (BLS) 発表の最新のCPIデータに基づいている。BLSは数百単位のカテゴリーのCPI統計を発表しており、現在のデータセットは1996年までさかのぼるが、CPIは1982-1984年に対して指数化されている。CPIには300を超えるサブインデックス (下位指数) が含まれており、それぞれに経済全体に対するサブインデックスの重要度を示すウェイティング (重み付け) がなされている。たとえば、食料品はCPIの14%を構成しており、ガソリンのウェイティングは4%となっている。TVのウェイティングはわずか0.096%である。
US TV Prices Fall as Overall Inflation Disappoints
※ご参考※ 無料翻訳ツール (DeepL)
In January 2023, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years, but the decrease in January was smaller than expected. Meanwhile, TV prices resumed their downward march in January after an unusual increase in December 2022.
This analysis is based on the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS publishes CPI statistics for hundreds of categories, and its current data set goes back to 1996, but the CPI is indexed to 1982-1984. The CPI includes more than 300 sub-indexes, each with a weighting that indicates the importance of the sub-index to the overall economy. For example, food items comprise 14% of the CPI, and gasoline is weighted at 4%. Televisions have a tiny weighting of only 0.096%.
The January 2023 overall CPI stood at 299.17, up by 0.8% M/M from December 2022 but up 6.4% from January 2022. The 0.8% increase M/M is not commonly reported; the 6.4% Y/Y figure is typically used as the headline for inflation reports. The CPI level of 299.17 means that a standard basket of goods that could be purchased for $100 in 1982-1984 would cost $299.17 for a consumer in January. The CPI for TVs in January 2023 was 1.223, which means that a (hypothetical) TV that cost $100 in 1982-1984 would cost $1.22 today. On a M/M basis TV prices were down 0.6%, which followed a rare 1.4% M/M increase in December.
In four of the last five month, the M/M figures for TVs have been in the opposite direction compared to the overall CPI. Despite low LCD TV panel prices, TV prices ticked up in September 2022 and again in December 2022. To demonstrate how unusual that is, in the entire period from 2000 to 2020 there were only seven M/M increases in the TV CPI.
The chart here shows the Y/Y change in the CPI, the familiar headline definition of inflation, and in the CPI sub-index for TV. In the period from 1997-2021, the CPI for TV spent nearly the entire flat panel display era below -10%. For a period of more than 10 years from 2005 to 2017, the CPI for TV was always below -10% and often below -20%.
Y/Y % Change in US Consumer Price Index
The general CPI in January 2023 increased by 6.4%, while the CPI sub-index for TVs in January 2023 decreased by 13.6% Y/Y, a smaller Y/Y price drop than the lowest number of 2022, the 19.8% recorded in August 2022. TV inflation peaked in August 2021 at 13.3% which was the highest level ever, but it has dropped rapidly in the year since then. The January price decrease of 0.5% represents a rate of -5.7% on an annualized basis if it would continue for 12 months, which is a smaller decrease than the average for the flat panel display period.
Based on our regression of TV inflation against LCD TV panel prices, we had expected that TV disinflation would have been higher in the holiday season, but it appears that TV price drops moderated at a time frame accelerated to the normal expectation of five months. In July 2022 our panel price index hit its lowest Y/Y value of -60.2%, which we expected to correlate to a TV price drop five months later in December 2022.
Y/Y % Change in US TV Prices (RHS) and LCD TV Panel Prices (LHS, Five Month lag)
Inflation for TV prices in the US is not expected to have a strong effect on demand, based on the historical example – past examples of TV deflation did not lead to a surge in demand in the US. However, with high inflation cutting into purchasing power in other areas, lower TV prices might help the US increase Y/Y sales numbers. As we have reported in recent weeks, this holiday season brought many all-time low prices on both low-end TVs and especially on premium TVs. With the holiday selling season over, special promotions become more rare, but sometimes can be found as brands and retailers try to clear out inventory before the new 2023 model year starts in the spring.