2020 Display Market Outlook "Virtual" Conference

2020 Display Market Outlook "Virtual" Conference

ご好評につき販売期間を延長!DSCC主催のグローバルWEBセミナー!2020年12月3日 (木) から講演ビデオ&PDF資料の配信開始!世界各国の主軸アナリスト陣が最注目トピックスを解説する充実の7演目!田村喜男は「FPD市場総論」を担当、107分間の徹底解説 (日本のお客様のみ特別付録版にて)!

田村喜男が「Display Market Outlook」枠に登壇するほか、DSCC主軸アナリスト陣が解説する7演目!
開催概要

■名称:
2020 Display Market Outlook "Virtual" Conference ※WEB式セミナー

■主催・運営:
DSCC 米国セミナー事務局
※日本のお客様にはDSCC 日本事務局がサポートさせていただきます。

■開催日時:
2020年12月3日 (木) 日本時間午前0時より全講演を閲覧できます。

■開催方式:
・事前収録されたビデオ講演のWEB配信となります。
・同時通訳サービスはありません。ただし、田村喜男の講演枠は「日本語解説版」を別途ご用意します。
・同時刻に全講演のプレゼンテーション資料 (PDF)をダウンロードできます。
・ご視聴期間に制限はありません。

■閲覧権:
1口のお申し込みで、ご登録者様1名様分となります。
事務局からご登録者様にお届けする「資料閲覧者様リスト (メールアドレスのみ)」のご提出を前提に、ご同僚様 (人数無制限) とのご共有を承ります (日本独自対応)。※グループ会社様・関連会社様とのご共有はできません。

■ご受講料金:
36,000円 (税込39,600円)

■お支払い:
ご登録受付後、日本事務局よりPDF請求書をメールしますので、国内銀行口座にお振込みください。

■お申し込み方法:
info@displaysupplychain.co.jp (日本事務局) に、【会社名】【部署名】【お名前】及び【請求書用紙の郵送をご希望される場合のみ、送付先ご住所】をご明記の上、「セミナー資料購入」などの件名にてメール送信をお願い申し上げます。24時間以内に納品メールを差し上げます。

※ご所属不明の個人アドレスや、セミナー・コンサル業務など、当社と競合関係にあると判断した御方には、お申し込みをいただいた後にお断りする場合があります。あらかじめご容赦ください。


■お問い合わせ先:
info@displaysupplychain.co.jp (日本事務局)

Event Agenda

約71分間 (英語)

Display Market Outlook

田村 喜男, Co-Founder and President of Asian Operations

  • Display Demand Forecast by Application
  • Display Investment/Capacity Updates and Fab Utilization Status
  • Display Cost Analysis by Technology Application - LCD, OLED, MiniLED, Foldable, 8K

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • DSCC expects display revenues to stay flat in 2020 at $111B helped by WFH and LFH boosting demand for IT panels and tightening supply leading to price increases. DSCC expects revenues to grow 6% in 2021 to $118B and reach $127B in 2024.
    • Actual LCD and mobile OLED fab utilization and forecasts for long term LCD and OLED supply/demand in both TVs and smartphones.
    • Near term LCD TV panel price and cost forecasts.
    • Long term TV, notebook, automotive and smartphone panel cost forecasts by display technology and region.
    • DSCC’s latest forecasts for TVs and smartphones by region through 2024.
    • Forecasts for all major display applications on a unit/area/$US basis by display technology.
    • Display capacity by technology, by substrate size, by supplier, impact of Korea’s LCD fab downsizing, input capacity by technology by country, by backplane type, flexible vs. rigid OLED input capacity by manufacturer and more.
約107分間 (語り: 日本語、資料: 英語)

Display Market Outlook (特別付録: 日本語解説版)

田村 喜男, Co-Founder and President of Asian Operations

  • Display Demand Forecast by Application
  • Display Investment/Capacity Updates and Fab Utilization Status
  • Display Cost Analysis by Technology Application - LCD, OLED, MiniLED, Foldable, 8K
日本支社の独自企画!上記の「Display Market Outlook」枠 (英文) を日本語でも解説する【特別付録】を日本のお客様のみにご提供します!持ち時間をあえて事前設定せず、DSCCアジア代表・田村喜男が母国語で己のメッセージを「語り尽くした」結果、71分間の英語オリジナル版に比べて107分間もの圧巻の講演量となりました!WEBセミナー企画ならではの魅力として、日本のお客様はぜひこちらの特典枠をご聴講ください。
48分間 (英語)

Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Outlook

Ross Young, Founder and CEO

  • Korea’s New Capacity and New Technology Schedules
  • China’s New Capacity Fab Schedules and Fab Layouts
  • Equipment Spending Forecasts
  • Equipment Supplier Market Share
  • Capacity Forecasts
ロス ヤングは1996年、旧ディスプレイサーチ (現オムディアのディスプレイ部門) を創業、長らく代表を務めました。事業売却後、OLED市場が高まる2016年に、経験豊富なキャリアを活かして再び「理想のFPD調査会社」を目指して田村喜男らとDSCCを起業、現在は当社のFounder兼CEO職にあります。欧米で最も影響力があるFPD産業アナリストです (Twitter)。FPD製造装置メーカーの勤務歴もあり、装置産業や設備投資動向の知見も豊富で、また同産業への思い入れも大変深いです。

登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW

    • Detailed look at the status of all new fab projects and new technology transitions at the following panel suppliers:
      • LG Display
      • Samsung Display
      • BOE
      • China Star
      • CHOT
      • EDO
      • HKC
      • InfoVision
      • Sharp
      • Tianma
      • Visionox
    • Analysis of how each new China fab is being financed in terms of debt vs. capital and local government vs. supplier share. Local governments are still assuming a majority share of all invested capital. Also provided fab layouts at all new fabs in China.
    • Forecasts of the top 4 equipment suppliers’ revenues from each new fab.
    • Detailed look at equipment spending in terms of move-in vs. install, LCD vs. OLED, mobile vs. TV, backplane type, country, manufacturer, process and tool type.
    • 2017-2021 total display equipment market share and revenue results and forecast.
    • Provided 2016-2021 supplier market share results and forecasts for some of the largest segments including:
      • Exposure
      • Coater/developer
      • CF exposure
      • CF coaters
      • CVD
      • PVD
      • Dry Etch
      • Wet etch/strip/clean
      • FMM VTE
      • IJP TFE
19分間 (英語)

Chinese AMOLED Display Industry Status and Strategy

Rita Li, Director of China Operations

  • China Top brands Smartphone Outlook
  • China Mobile AMOLED Outlook - Investment and New Technology Plans
  • China AMOLED Panel Supplier Performance and Strategy
  • New Opportunity/Challenges Of AMOLED In China

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • This talk delved into the current environment for AMOLED suppliers in China given the restrictions on Huawei.
    • It provided the 2019 shipments results and latest 2020 forecasts for China’s AMOLED suppliers for both smartphones and wearables. All of the suppliers enjoyed very healthy growth in smartphones. It also examined the financial results of Chinese AMOLED panel suppliers identifying winners and losers.
    • Also shown were:
      • The customer relationships for each of China’s AMOLED panel suppliers.
      • Detailed fab schedules for each of China’s AMOLED panel suppliers.
      • LTPO and Touch on TFE plans for each of China’s AMOLED suppliers.
      • China’s 5G results.
      • Single’s Day smartphone sell-thru results by price band by model.
      • Detailed shipment forecast by smartphone brand by display technology from 2019-2025 for Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei and Honor. One highlight of this data by brand by technology is that rigid OLEDs are projected to do very well in 2021 in China as brands transition away from LCDs but still want to meet lower price points than can be met by flexible OLEDs.
      • SWOT analysis for China’s AMOLED suppliers.
約40分間 (英語)

Smartphone Market Outlook

Ross Young, Founder and CEO

  • Latest Results & Near Term Outlook
  • Display and Smartphone Trends
  • What Is Coming?
  • Longer Term Forecast
  • Summary

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • Q4’20 will be a record quarter for AMOLEDs with Apple delaying much of its panel procurement until Q4’20 and Samsung Mobile pulling in its S21 launch resulting in significant panel shipments from November. Q4’20 is well above any other quarter on record for AMOLEDs.
    • Apple is expected to lead in total AMOLED smartphone panel procurement for the first time in Q4’20, overtaking Samsung.
    • Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to gain share in Q4’20 on the Apple launch at the expense of BOE.
    • Flexible AMOLEDs are expected to have a large advantage over rigid for the first time in Q4’20 on the Apple and S21 launches.
    • Q4’20 is expected to be the first quarter where the average AMOLED smartphone panel size declines due to share gains by the iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro, Google’s new line-up, etc. <6” and 6.2” are gaining significant share. Even Samsung’s flagships have stopped growing with the S21 Ultra expected to be smaller than the S20 Ultra. It looks like the average phone size has peaked excluding foldables and rollables.
    • 5G overtook 4G for the first time in Q3’20 for AMOLED smartphones and will have a big advantage in Q4’20 on the iPhone 12 launch.
    • Qualcomm is expected to lead in AMOLED smartphone chipset share in 2020 although Apple will lead at 5G and Samsung will lead at 4G with Qualcomm 2nd in both.
    • Samsung is expected to have 8 of the top 10 best-selling 120Hz AMOLED smartphones in 2020 on a revenue basis led by the Note 20 Ultra.
    • A deep dive into LTPO including challenges, fab schedules, projected capacity share and more.
    • Smartphone market forecast by display technology, AMOLED form factor and by brand by technology and form factor.
約44分間 (英語)

Foldable and Rollable Market Outlook

Ross Young, Founder and CEO

  • Latest Results & Near-Term Outlook
  • Device Trends
  • What Is Coming?
  • What About Rollables?
  • Longer Term Forecast
  • Summary

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • This talk examined the latest results and forecasts for foldable and rollable panels and devices.
    • It provided the latest results for 2020 by brand by model and by panel supplier on a unit and revenue basis. It also showed this data on a monthly basis in terms of panel procurement, device production and device shipments.
    • For both 2019 and 2020, there was a significant gap between panel shipments, device production and device sell-in. This gap is explained and is expected to narrow as volumes grow.
    • Samsung was clearly the dominant brand in 2020 with over a 90% share in Q3’20 and Q4’20 on a panel procurement basis and an 87% share for the year.
    • By model, the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip and the Z Fold 2 are expected to be the two best-selling foldables in 2020 on both a unit and revenue basis.
    • Samsung’s shipment share by region was shown with Korea expected to be the #1 region for foldables in 2020.
    • Market share was also shown by quarter and by year for:
      • Form factor – clamshell vs. in-fold vs. out-fold with clamshells leading in the 1H’20 and in-folding leading in 2H’20.
      • UTG vs. CPI with UTG dominating in 2020.
      • Refresh rate – 120Hz held a dominant share in 2H’20.
      • Backplane type – following the refresh rate trends, LTPO dominated in 2H’20.
      • Touch type – Touch on TFE dominated in 2019 and 2020.
      • 4G vs. 5G with 5G dominating in 2H’20.
      • Price band
      • Average size
      • Chipset supplier and Model
    • This talk also examined what is coming by looking at:
      • A change in Samsung’s flagship strategy and what this means for foldables.
      • Expectations for the Z Flip 3, Z Fold 3 and a 3rd foldable expected by Samsung to hit the lowest price points yet.
      • Outlook for multi-folds including pros, cons and expected timing.
      • Expectations for other brands in 2021 including:
        • Google
        • Motorola
        • Oppo
        • Royole
        • Xiaomi
      • Expectations for Apple
      • How foldable panels will continue to get thinner.
      • Rollables – pros and cons. Some of the benefits of rollables vs. foldables include no seam, reduced thickness vs. foldables in the folded position and a larger radius which should expand tolerances and reduce the likelihood of delamination and improve yields. Concerns include durability of the motors and sliding mechanism and reduced space for the battery and other components due to the motors and sliding mechanisms. In addition, the entire panel is under stress from the curvature as opposed to just the same and it will likely be more difficult to waterproof rollable devices. Also discussed is where rollables are likely to be positioned in terms of size and pricing vs. foldables.
    • Long term forecast
      • We provided foldable/rollable forecasts through 2025 which featured:
        • Shipments by application in units and revenues revealing both panel and device revenues.
        • Foldable vs. rollable units and size share within each segment;
        • Size forecast and average size;
        • Forecasted brand and panel supplier share;
        • Clamshell vs. In-fold vs. Multi-Fold vs. Out-fold forecast;
        • UTG vs. CPI;
        • Refresh rate and backplane technology;
        • 4G vs. 5G;
        • Price band and average price.
36分間 (英語)

Advanced TV Market Outlook

Bob O’Brien, Co-Founder and President

  • TV in the Display Industry
  • The TV Market in the Pandemic
  • Advanced TV Market Battle: OLED vs. LCD
    - Cost Analysis
    - Market Performance
  • Advanced TV Brand Battle
  • Forecast for Advanced TV

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • The total TV market was down in 1H 2020 due to the pandemic, but recovered with 10% Y/Y growth in Q3. North America and Western Europe both increased >40% Y/Y while other regions remained negatively affected by COVID.
    • White-OLED (WOLED) has been effective in the premium TV market, but costs more than 2x LCD TV with QDEF.
    • WOLED and MiniLED backlit LCD TV with QDEF will compete at similar prices points, but MiniLED costs will remain lower.
    • The Advanced TV market surged in Q3 2020 from stay-at-home demand in North America and Western Europe.
    • Advanced TV features in both LCD and OLED have been expanded to smaller screen sizes to expand the market at lower price points.
    • Samsung lost share of the premium TV market to WOLED in 2017-2018, but has regained share by emphasizing big screens >65”, high brightness and color volume.
    • Samsung dominates the Advanced TV market in North America and Europe, but China has become a battleground between Samsung, TCL, Huawei, Hisense and others.
    • Advanced TV shipments are expected to increase to 32.5 million by 2025, and growth in 75”+ TV is expected to continue at a very high rate.
    • MicroLED will emerge as a super-premium TV technology at very small volumes.
約47分間 (英語)

Emerging Technologies: MiniLED and MicroLED Displays

Dr. Guillaume Chansin, Director of Display Research

  • LCD with MiniLED Backlight
  • MicroLED Displays for TV and Smart Watches
  • MicroLED Displays for AR/VR

    登壇者によるポイント解説!NEW
    • Most MiniLED backlights are currently manufactured on PCB backplanes, with various configurations of optical distance (OD) and number of zones.
    • Samsung is targeting 2M MiniLED backlit TVs in 2021. Apple is expected to launch a new iPad with 12.9" MiniLED backlit display.
    • Low-end MiniLED LCD will have a cost advantage on OLED TVs (WOLED and inkjet OLED).
    • Shipments of MiniLED LCDs will reach 48.2 million units in 2025, growing at a 247% CAGR from 2020 to 2025
    • MicroLED cannot be driven like OLED. Efficiency and wavelength are dependent on current density.
    • Stamp-based mass transfer is most popular currently. PlayNitride has made MicroLED prototypes in collaboration with Samsung, AUO, Tianma and China Star.
    • MicroLED is expected to represent only 0.6% of TV panel revenues by 2026.
    • Monolithic approach is the best for high PPI MicroLED displays for AR/VR.
    • In the long term, MicroLED can dominate in AR and can gain some market share in VR.